Price (Bt) 3.86
Target (Bt) 3.92
Set Index 533.92
Additional income with higher costs at Nam Ngum 2 boosted 1Q09
1Q09 normalised earnings surge 162% yoy
Higher revenue and wider margins from the Nam Ngum 2 project
boosted 1Q09 earnings, surging 162%
yoy to Bt238mn. When including a foreign exchange gain of Bt97mn, the net profit rose to Bt336mn.
Construction revenue increased strongly by 127% yoy and 78% qoq to Bt6.80bn in 1Q09. Meanwhile, the gross margin widened to 12.4% from 10.9% last quarter. This was due to additional income and compensation for higher construction costs at the Nam Ngum 2 project, which should be a one-time gain only. However, when considering only domestic operations, the gross margin was negative at 1.75%. Equity income turned negative of -Bt169mn in 1Q09 from a positive Bt22mn last quarter given higher losses from Southeast Asia Energy with an investment in the Nam Ngum 2 project.
No clear conclusion on the first Purple Line contract
The MRTA has reconsidered construction costs of the first contract for the Purple Line once again
as the final price, after negotiations, remains higher than the reference price. The CKTC joint venture
has already reduced construction cost estimates by 10% to Bt14,965mn. There is still no clear conclusion on
this problem. However, the MRTA will proceed with bidding for the second Purple Line contract with the
price-bidding documents to be opened in June. The three bidders on the second contract are, the ITON joint
venture, CKTC joint venture and STEC. We believe that STEC and CKTC joint venture have good chances to
secure this contract. In addition, CK is waiting to sign two more construction contracts in 2Q09 (an
underpass on Charansanitwong, worth Bt900mn and an SPP power plant, worth Bt4.00bn).
Shares have reached the price target, recommend FULLY-VALUED
Although the 1Q09 earnings are above our expectations, this should happen only this one time.
Earnings will tend to be lower in the following quarters. We will wait for additional information after an
analyst’s meeting next week before revising our projections. Given the positive factors on the mass transit
bids, the CK share price has risen 93% from the low late last year and has now reached our price target of
Bt3.92. We, hence, have downgraded our rating to FULLY-VALUED.
Earnings summary
Year End Dec 31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
Sales (Btmn) 19,208 13,565 13,230 12,868 13,365
EBITDA (Btmn) 858 451 676 618 713
Normalised earnings (Btmn) -124 -402 -176 91 195
Earnings (Btmn) -1,213 15 545 91 195
EPS (Bt) -0.97 0.01 0.38 0.06 0.13
PER (x) - 384 10.2 61.7 28.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 21.7 30.9 26 28.8 24.9
Free cash flow (Btmn) -3,665 1,737 -1,112 -181 144
CF/share (Bt) 1.46 0.55 0.7 0.22 0.27
BVPS (Bt) 3.68 3.58 3.43 3.39 3.59
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
DPS (Bt) - 0.2 0.1 0.02 0.04
Dividend yield (%) 0.00% 5.20% 2.60% 0.50% 1.00%
Net debt/equity (x) 2.8 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.3
ROA (%) -1.40% 3.30% 4.00% 0.10% 2.00%
ROE (%) -2.10% -5.10% -3.30% 0.00% 1.30%
Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.
CK issued debentures worth Bt2.50bn in February, hence raising outstanding debt to Bt16.7bn from
Bt14.6bn last quarter. Accordingly, the net gearing has climbed to 2.53x from 2.36x last quarter. The
operating cash flow remains negative at Bt590mn in 1Q09. However, after the sizeable construction work
delivered in 1Q09, we expect to see a strong cash inflow in 2-3Q09, which should help lower the outstanding
debt and gearing.
By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 18, 2009
USA Major Cities
Colorado Springs Colorado ,St. Louis Missouri ,Chicago Illinois ,Akron Ohio,Santa Ana California ,Tulsa Oklahoma,Phoenix Arizona ,Birmingham Alabama,Scottsdale Arizona,Pittsburgh Pennsylvania,Houston Texas ,Nashville-Davidson Tennessee,Honolulu Hawaii,Stockton California,Plano Texas,Brookhaven New York ,Buffalo New York ,Dallas Texas ,Philadelphia Pennsylvania ,Jersey City New Jersey,Chesapeake Virginia,Virginia Beach Virginia ,Riverside California,Norfolk Virginia,Austin Texas,Raleigh North Carolina ,Toledo Ohio,Orlando Florida,Tampa Florida,North Hempstead New York,Reno Nevada,Islip New York ,Detroit Michigan,Memphis Tennessee,Oyster Bay New York,Boston Massachusetts,Fort Worth Texas ,Seattle Washington,Washington District of Columbia,Cincinnati Ohio,Columbus Ohio,Fresno California,San Antonio Texas,Lincoln Nebraska,Fort Wayne Indiana ,Cleveland Ohio,Chula Vista California ,Anchorage Alaska,Glendale Arizona,Baton Rouge Louisiana ,Sacramento California,Madison Wisconsin,New York New york,Jacksonville Florida,Las Vegas Nevada ,Modesto California,Chandler Arizona,Albuquerque New Mexico ,Minneapolis Minnesota,Durham North Carolina ,Atlanta Georgia,Anaheim California,San Jose California ,Mesa Arizona,Denver Colorado,Baltimore Maryland,Lexington-Fayette Kentucky,Lubbock Texas,Rochester New York ,Newark New Jersey ,Arlington Texas ,Los Angeles California,Kansas City Missouri ,Omaha Nebraska,Aurora Colorado,Long Beach California ,Charlotte North Carolina ,Milwaukee Wisconsin,Corpus Christi Texas ,Portland Oregon ,El Paso Texas ,Indianapolis Indiana,St. Petersburg Florida ,Oakland California,St. Paul Minnesota ,Wichita Kansas ,Greensboro North Carolina ,Bakersfield California,Miami Florida,Babylon New York ,Hialeah Florida,Hempstead New York ,Tucson Arizona,Oklahoma City Oklahoma ,New Orleans Louisiana ,Henderson Nevada,San Francisco California ,Laredo Texas,San Diego ,Garland Texas
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น